There is a clear trajectory when assessing the probability of Tottenham being relegated this season. And right now, despite the sacking of head coach Thomas Frank, it's never been more likely.
Turning to the betting markets at times like this are always a reliable pointer. They have a habit of cutting through noise and sentiment. They don't deal in romance or reputation.
They deal in cold, hard probability. And right now, they are sending a shiver down the white half of north London.
Since the turn of the year, the drop in odds when it comes to Spurs and the dreaded drop has been one-way traffic.
100/1. 66/1. 33/1. 10/1.
After Tuesday's defeat to Newcastle, Spurs were 5/1 with Sky Bet to be relegated from the Premier League. Frank's departure has seen that move to 13/2, an implied probability of 13 per cent.
Sky Bet have West Ham at 8/13 to drop and Nottingham Forest at 11/4 after their 0-0 stalemate with Wolves.
Wouldn't it be just so Spurs to win the Champions League and suffer relegation?
But this predicament is no joke.
With just 12 games to play, Spurs, sensationally, have been dragged into a relegation scrap. They are more likely to be relegated than both Leeds and Sunderland. Who would have foreseen that when the first ball was kicked in August?
Prices like this are built on performance data, remaining fixtures, underlying numbers and, crucially in Tottenham's case, the strength of those around you. And this is where their problem deepens.
West Ham are in the midst of a tear in terms of points in the Premier League.
Across the last six games, they have taken 10 points - the fourth most of any team. If it wasn't for stoppage time drama going against them against Chelsea and Manchester United, that figure would be 13. This is a West Ham team completely revamped by Nuno Espirito Santo.
Despite some late swings going against them, this is a team that looks united playing in front of a fanbase that is seeing signs of survival. In the 1-1 draw with Manchester United on Tuesday night, the London Stadium rocked in the second half like it hasn't rocked since the special European nights of three years ago under David Moyes.
"There's a team spirit here which they can cling on to," reported Your Site' Chris Reidy. "The players walk around the pitch applauding the fans, there's genuine belief they can stay up."
Meanwhile, the now-sacked Frank oversaw just two wins from Tottenham's last 16 matches in the Premier League. If it looks like relegation form, quacks like relegation form, then it's probably relegation form.
"Spurs are in a relegation battle," concluded Your Site' Michael Bridge. "There is no confidence in the side and no key players are close to returning."
What makes this threat a serious one is that the bottom end of the Premier League is refusing to play along to the usual script when it comes to survival.
The Hammers' recent surge has warped the safety line. It has injected a level of competitiveness that threatens to drag the survival bar higher than usual. This is starting to look like a season where even 38 points may not be enough to guarantee safety - 40 might be the real target.
That is dangerous territory for any side stuck in a cycle of inconsistency.
For a club that dines regularly at the top table, this is not just uncomfortable reading; it is downright alarming.
